October wholesale inflation climbed to a four-year annual high of 6.5% on Friday, lifting the 10-year Treasury yield to 5.15% and pulling technology shares lower. The S&P 500 slipped 0.5% and the Nasdaq-100 fell 1.2%, while semiconductor funds SOXX and SMH dropped 3.8% and 3.1%. The two-year Treasury yield held at 4.87% after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent argued against raising interest rates over energy shocks tied to the war in Iran. Bessent also went on CNBC to blame Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick for delaying export curbs on Singapore-based Megaspeed International. Megaspeed sits at the center of the probe into alleged Chinese intelligence ties that forced AI chipmaker Nvidia's chief executive, Jensen Huang, to resign on Thursday.
Friday's pullback in chipmakers and the stocks most sensitive to market moves gave back part of this week's recovery in the FactorPulse hedge-fund pain index, which has yet to hold its gains for the three sessions its rule requires. The index reads how factor returns have hurt a typical long-short hedge-fund book, not fund positions. Morgan Stanley prime-brokerage data through early November showed hedge funds holding among their lowest net stock exposure since 2010, and systematic trading desks reported multi-year lows in automated stock positioning on Thursday. Nvidia reports quarterly results on Tuesday under interim chief executive Colette Kress, the chief financial officer who stepped in after Huang's departure. Huang has agreed to testify before Congress ahead of Thanksgiving, and Lutnick is set to appear before the Senate Banking Committee on December 10.
Chipmakers Advanced Micro Devices and Broadcom fell 9.0% and 4.9%, reversing Thursday's rally in Nvidia's rivals. Networking-gear maker Cisco Systems lost 6.1% as tighter gross margins outweighed a quarterly profit beat and a higher full-year revenue forecast. Chip-equipment supplier Applied Materials slipped 3.5% despite upbeat sales guidance for wafer-fabrication gear, while Bitcoin dropped 3.4% to $68,968. Social-media company Meta Platforms rose 3.0% after signing low-carbon cement and steel deals for its data centers, helping lift communication-services fund XLC by 1.1%. A FactorPulse gauge of shared market risk shows that broad exposure to volatile stocks accounted for 3.0 percentage points of Applied Materials' 3.5% drop, 4.9 points of AMD's 9.0% drop, and 2.6 points of Broadcom's 4.9% decline.
| Factor | Return Today Pct | Z Today | For Long Short Books |
|---|---|---|---|
| Short Interest | 0.14 | 0.82 | |
| Medium-Term Momentum | 0.18 | 0.64 | |
| International | 0.17 | 0.59 | |
| Bitcoin / Crypto | 0.14 | 0.47 | |
| Short-Sale Activity | 0.05 | 0.43 | |
| Profitability | 0.07 | 0.39 | |
| Gold | 0.12 | 0.36 | |
| Treasury (Duration) | 0.12 | 0.36 | |
| China | 0.13 | 0.32 | |
| Value | 0.04 | 0.19 | |
| Morning Activity | 0.02 | 0.17 | |
| Oil | 0.07 | 0.14 | |
| Liquidity | 0.04 | 0.13 | |
| Hedge-Fund Ownership | 0.00 | 0.01 | |
| Residual Volatility | -0.04 | -0.08 | |
| Growth | -0.07 | -0.27 | |
| Size | -0.15 | -0.42 | |
| One-Day Momentum | -0.19 | -0.67 | |
| Dividend Yield | -0.12 | -0.70 | |
| Long-Term Momentum | -0.47 | -0.73 | |
| Short-Term Momentum | -0.23 | -0.76 | |
| Leverage | -0.15 | -0.91 | |
| Semiconductors | -0.65 | -1.04 | |
| Beta | -1.59 | -1.62 | risk-off |
The hedge-fund pain index bottomed on Nov. 5, the third-deepest of 32 such drawdowns since 2020. It had won back nearly half of that drop by Thursday's close, the day Nvidia announced Huang's resignation, while the semiconductor fund SMH rose 12.1% over the five sessions through Thursday.
Beta fell 1.59% (z -1.6) on Friday, a risk-off move, and the FactorPulse hedge-fund pain index slipped back from Thursday, though seven of its eight legs have confirmed a turn. The index stands 9.1 daily standard deviations below its Oct. 6 peak. Hedge funds entered early November with net equity exposure near lows since 2010 according to Morgan Stanley prime-brokerage data, and CTA desks reported systematic equity positioning at multi-year lows on Nov. 12.
Background: our research note Factor Fingerprints of Hedge Fund Deleveraging Events compares October with 31 hedge-fund deleveraging events since 2020.
| Session | Sigma Vs Peak | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 20260924 | -1.05 | |
| 20260925 | -0.40 | |
| 20260928 | -0.97 | |
| 20260929 | -0.52 | |
| 20260930 | -0.98 | |
| 20261001 | -0.37 | |
| 20261002 | -0.03 | |
| 20261005 | -0.47 | |
| 20261006 | 0.00 | |
| 20261007 | -0.18 | |
| 20261008 | -0.86 | |
| 20261009 | -0.62 | |
| 20261012 | -1.47 | |
| 20261013 | -1.46 | |
| 20261014 | -2.82 | |
| 20261015 | -4.07 | |
| 20261016 | -4.86 | |
| 20261019 | -4.55 | |
| 20261020 | -5.45 | |
| 20261021 | -4.86 | |
| 20261022 | -9.42 | −4.6σ on the day. Chip Stocks Fall With Yields as AI Credit Spreads Widen |
| 20261023 | -9.29 | |
| 20261026 | -8.57 | |
| 20261027 | -7.57 | |
| 20261028 | -6.98 | |
| 20261029 | -7.52 | |
| 20261030 | -9.36 | |
| 20261102 | -11.38 | |
| 20261103 | -10.18 | |
| 20261104 | -12.77 | −2.6σ on the day. AI Builders Fall on Voter Backlash Against Data Centers |
| 20261105 | -15.86 | −3.1σ on the day. AI Selloff Spreads to Whole Market, Sending Nasdaq-100 Down 6% |
| 20261106 | -13.92 | |
| 20261109 | -11.57 | +2.3σ on the day. High-Beta Stocks Jump 8% as Nvidia Falls 4% on Huang Probe |
| 20261110 | -10.87 | |
| 20261111 | -8.77 | +2.1σ on the day. Nvidia Tumbles 8.5% After Hours Despite AI Chip Rally |
| 20261112 | -8.26 | |
| 20261113 | -9.13 | |
| leg: beta | -12.15 | turned Oct 27, new low Nov 5 |
| leg: 12-month momentum | -8.37 | no turn yet |
| leg: volatility (VIX) | -4.09 | turned Oct 21, new low Nov 5 |
| leg: short-interest P&L | -3.66 | turned Nov 9 |
| leg: weekly reversal | -0.24 | turned Nov 9 |
| leg: crowding (13F) | 3.25 | turned Nov 4 |
| flow gauge, not in the index: 1-day reversal | -8.33 | turned Nov 4, new low Nov 12 |
| flow gauge, not in the index: short-sale P&L | 2.86 | turned Oct 28, new low Nov 2 |
Earnings reactions so far todayReporters worth over $100 billion, or moving more than 10% with a value above $5 billion
| Company | Move | Stock-specific | Market cap | Revenue YoY | Margin YoY | What drove it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cisco Systems CSCO | -6.1% | -4.7% | $402B | +24% | +3.4 pts adj. operating | Gross-margin compression overshadowed fiscal Q1 beat and raised revenue guidance |
| Applied Materials AMAT | -3.5% light volume | -0.1% | $302B | +53% | +6.7 pts adj. operating | Broad style-factor drag offset Q4 beat and strong wafer-fab equipment outlook |
| Nu NU | +10.4% | +10.3% | $57B | — | — | Record $1.1 billion Q3 net income on 37% revenue growth |
| Cerebras Systems CBRS | +11.5% | +14.7% | $23B | +55% | -4.6 pts adj. operating | Rallied after reporting quarterly results Thursday evening |
| Stantec STN | +14.1% | +13.3% | $8B | — | — | Record 20.2% Q3 EBITDA margin and raised full-year 2026 guidance |
Stock-specific: the part of a stock's move not explained by the market, style or thematic (industry and theme) factors in the FactorPulse risk model.
Revenue and margin from the company's earnings release, year over year; margin change in percentage points; — where the release is not parsed or the figures failed checks.
Light volume: the company's earnings filing confirms the report, but trading volume has not caught up yet, so the move is an early read.
Of the 500 largest companies, 434 have reported (83% of market cap), on day 32 of the season.
How earnings reactions split, day 32 of the seasonThe 500 largest US companies with a confirmed earnings reaction so far (415), vs the same day in the past eight seasons and in four-season stretches back to mid-2020
| Season | ≤ −5σ | −5 to −2σ | −2 to 0σ | 0 to 2σ | 2 to 5σ | ≥ 5σ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | 8% | 16% | 28% | 24% | 19% | 5% |
| Past 8 seasons | 15% | 19% | 17% | 16% | 18% | 15% |
| Q2 2026 | 14% | 20% | 18% | 16% | 19% | 14% |
| Q1 2026 | 13% | 19% | 13% | 20% | 18% | 18% |
| Q4 2025 | 18% | 16% | 17% | 14% | 21% | 15% |
| Q3 2025 | 11% | 18% | 21% | 18% | 17% | 16% |
| Q2 2025 | 16% | 23% | 14% | 16% | 15% | 16% |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | 17% | 17% | 18% | 19% | 11% |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | 18% | 16% | 16% | 15% | 17% |
| Q3 2024 | 17% | 21% | 15% | 12% | 18% | 17% |
| Q3 '23–Q2 '24 | 16% | 18% | 16% | 14% | 20% | 16% |
| Q3 '22–Q2 '23 | 12% | 19% | 19% | 17% | 22% | 12% |
| Q3 '21–Q2 '22 | 13% | 18% | 15% | 19% | 23% | 12% |
| Q3 '20–Q2 '21 | 6% | 21% | 28% | 23% | 17% | 5% |
σ: a stock's earnings-day stock-specific move divided by its typical daily stock-specific move over the past year. Each bar is cut at the same business day of the season; companies weighted by the square root of market cap.
Rival chipmakers gave back Thursday's gains mainly on style exposure, with AMD falling 9.0% on a style drag of 4.9 percentage points. Broadcom slid 4.9%, with style factors accounting for 2.6 percentage points of the drop. Nvidia enters Tuesday's earnings report under interim CEO Colette Kress after Jensen Huang resigned Thursday. Bloomberg Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent blamed Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on CNBC on Friday for stalling Entity List curbs on Megaspeed, the firm tied to the probe, while Huang agreed to testify before Congress ahead of Thanksgiving. The bitcoin-miner and AI-hosting ETF WGMI lost 5.3%, while the Semiconductors factor net of styles dipped 0.65%.
| Exposure Group | Today Pct | 5D Scaled Pct | 20D Scaled Pct | 63D Scaled Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.19 | -1.01 | -0.21 | -0.18 |
| 2 | 0.40 | 0.13 | -0.16 | -0.46 |
| 3 | -0.33 | -0.36 | 0.34 | -0.71 |
| 4 | -0.05 | 0.60 | 0.75 | -0.59 |
| 5 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 0.27 | -0.88 |
| 6 | 0.02 | 0.76 | 0.94 | 0.09 |
| 7 | 0.35 | 0.58 | 0.90 | -0.46 |
| 8 | 0.32 | -0.31 | 0.31 | -0.80 |
| 9 | 0.23 | 0.07 | 1.42 | 0.27 |
| 10 | 0.59 | 0.02 | 0.58 | -0.04 |
| 11 | -0.09 | 0.90 | 1.23 | -0.53 |
| 12 | -0.32 | 1.05 | 0.65 | -0.32 |
| 13 | -0.21 | 1.19 | 0.52 | -0.58 |
| 14 | -0.32 | 1.47 | 1.35 | -0.21 |
| 15 | -0.44 | 1.35 | 0.22 | -1.02 |
| 16 | -0.92 | 2.23 | 0.10 | -0.85 |
| 17 | -0.74 | 3.04 | 0.17 | -0.96 |
| 18 | -1.16 | 3.43 | -0.65 | -1.55 |
| 19 | -0.99 | 4.19 | -1.13 | -1.68 |
| 20 | -0.69 | 6.39 | -2.15 | -3.88 |
The 10-year Treasury yield rose 4.6 basis points to 5.149% on Friday after October wholesale inflation hit 6.5% year-over-year. Long-dated yields extended a four-day, 0.266-percentage-point climb that took the 10-year rate to 5.102% on Thursday. Morningstar The Dollar Index reached 103.4, while the 2-year Treasury yield held at 4.867% after Bessent argued against raising rates over Iran-war energy shocks even as New York Fed President John Williams reinforced December hike expectations. Corporate bond funds absorbed the higher yields without spread widening, as five-day implied spreads tightened 8.0 basis points on the investment-grade ETF LQD and 20.0 basis points on the high-yield ETF HYG.
Stocks reporting quarterly results split between company news and shared factor risk on Friday, with Cisco Systems falling 6.1%—including a stock-specific drop of 4.7 percentage points—as gross-margin compression overshadowed a fiscal first-quarter beat and raised full-year guidance. The Wall Street Journal Applied Materials slid 3.5% on a style-factor drag of 3.0 percentage points despite upbeat wafer-fab equipment guidance. Nu Holdings gained 10.4% on record third-quarter net income, standing out in an earnings season where 24% of top-500 reporters have risen two standard deviations or more on a stock-specific basis, against 33% on average at this point in the past eight seasons.
| Part | Today Pct | Average Day Pct |
|---|---|---|
| The market | 1.00 | 9.80 |
| Style factors | 40.40 | 24.60 |
| Themes | 1.60 | 2.90 |
| Company-specific | 57.00 | 62.60 |
+0.14% (z +0.8) · bottom Beta 
-1.59% (z -1.6)
| Factor | Return Today Pct | Z Today | Return 63 Sessions Pct | For Long Short Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Short Interest | 0.14 | 0.82 | -0.40 | |
| Short-Sale Activity | 0.05 | 0.43 | 0.10 | |
| Hedge-Fund Ownership | 0.00 | 0.01 | -0.00 | |
| Dividend Yield | -0.12 | -0.70 | -1.50 | |
| Long-Term Momentum | -0.47 | -0.73 | -5.60 | |
| Short-Term Momentum | -0.23 | -0.76 | -0.90 | |
| Leverage | -0.15 | -0.91 | -1.80 | |
| Semiconductors | -0.65 | -1.04 | -7.60 | |
| Beta | -1.59 | -1.62 | -13.20 | wrong-way |
| Factor | Return | Z-Score | 5d Z | 20d Z | 63d Z | Category | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -1.59% | -1.6 | +0.6 | -1.1 | -1.7 | Style-Risk | High-beta stocks underperformed low-beta stocks |
| Semiconductors | -0.65% | -1.0 | +1.8 | -0.9 | -1.6 | Thematic | Stocks with high semiconductor beta underperformed |
| Short-Term Momentum | -0.23% | -0.8 | -2.9 | -0.6 | -0.4 | Style-Flow | Multi-day decliners outperformed multi-day winners |
| Short Interest | +0.14% | +0.8 | -2.6 | +0.7 | -0.3 | Style-Positioning | Most heavily shorted stocks outperformed least shorted |
| Short-Sale Activity | +0.05% | +0.4 | +0.2 | -0.9 | +0.1 | Style-Flow | Top decile outperformed bottom decile |
| Value | +0.04% | +0.2 | +1.2 | -0.8 | +0.0 | Style | Value is essentially flat today |
| China | +0.13% | +0.3 | -0.6 | -0.3 | -0.2 | Thematic | Stocks with high China beta outperformed |
| Hedge-Fund Ownership | 0.00% | +0.0 | -0.4 | +0.4 | +0.0 | Style-Positioning | Hedge-Fund Ownership is essentially flat today |
| Fund | Ticker | Return Today Pct | Return Prior 20 Sessions Pct | Today In Own Sigma | Volume Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Staples · XLP | XLP | 1.14 | 5.10 | 1.16 | 1.19 |
| Gold · GLD | GLD | 0.17 | -7.30 | 0.09 | 2.31 |
| China internet · KWEB | KWEB | -0.10 | -6.90 | -0.06 | 1.57 |
| ARK Innovation · ARKK | ARKK | -1.51 | -10.70 | -0.62 | 2.91 |
| Preferred stock · PFF | PFF | -0.45 | -3.50 | -0.86 | 1.88 |
| Semiconductors · SMH | SMH | -3.13 | -10.20 | -1.16 | 1.60 |
| Bitcoin futures · BITO | BITO | -3.32 | -13.60 | -1.19 | 1.92 |
| Semiconductors · SOXX | SOXX | -3.77 | -9.70 | -1.20 | 2.17 |
| Momentum · MTUM | MTUM | -2.25 | -8.00 | -1.21 | 0.94 |
| Municipal bonds · MUB | MUB | -0.33 | 1.70 | -1.36 | 1.67 |
+1.1% · bottom bitcoin miners & AI hosting (WGMI) 
-5.3%| ETF | Theme | Today | 1d Ago | 5d Ago | 20d Ago | 63d Ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLP | consumer staples | +1.1% | -0.4% | -0.2% | +5.1% | +6.5% |
| TLT | long-term bonds | -0.4% | -1.5% | -2.7% | +0.1% | -1.7% |
| SPY | large cap | -0.5% | -0.4% | +3.3% | -1.9% | -2.2% |
| QQQ | large cap growth | -1.2% | -0.3% | +6.3% | -5.5% | -5.8% |
| MTUM | momentum | -2.2% | +0.1% | +10.8% | -8.0% | -12.4% |
| AIPO | AI power infrastructure | -2.5% | -0.6% | +11.7% | -9.0% | -21.9% |
| SMH | semiconductors | -3.1% | -1.0% | +12.1% | -10.2% | -14.6% |
| BITO | crypto | -3.3% | -4.3% | -6.3% | -13.6% | +12.1% |
| SOXX (2.2× vol) | semiconductors | -3.8% | -0.3% | +17.5% | -9.7% | -15.5% |
| WGMI | bitcoin miners & AI hosting | -5.3% | -4.9% | +18.8% | -20.4% | -43.2% |
The Producer Price Index rose 0.3% month-over-month in Friday's 8:30 AM ET release, pushing annual wholesale inflation to a four-year high of 6.5% in October BLS. The Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% month-over-month for October in Tuesday's Nov. 10 report BLS. Initial jobless claims rose to 200,000 on Nov. 12 Labor Department, and October existing home sales dropped to a 16-year low in the National Association of Realtors release that morning. The 2-year Treasury yield held at 4.867% on Friday after Bessent argued on Nov. 12 against raising rates in response to Iran-war energy shocks. The 10-year yield finished Friday at 5.149%, leaving the 2s10s spread at 28.2 basis points with 26 days until the December 8-9 FOMC meeting Federal Reserve.
+2.27% · bottom Beta -4.59%Variance decomposition: live as of 2:09 PM ET in the Nov 13 session, compared with each factor's range over the past year.
Variance mix — % of total, today vs 1d ago vs 1-yr avg
market 25%ile style 89%ile thematic 28%ile idiosyncratic 25%ile
Variance explained — today vs. factor's trailing-year range
Marker = the factor's share of today's total variance, placed in its own trailing-year range (box 25–75%ile, ticks 90%ile and max). Amber marker = unusually load-bearing today (≥90%ile of its own year). Factor name green = up today / red = down.
Correlation & dispersion — realized vs implied
Realized correlation, 500 largest stocks (20d): 21.93% 44%ile since 2020 · 98.4%ile 3m · implied (Cboe COR1M): 11.23 6.2%ile since 2006 (gap +10.7pp)
All stocks in the model: 17.16% 37%ile since 2020 · 96.8%ile 3m
Realized 20d vol (ann. pts): all stocks 55 vs VIXEQ 44 · index 20 vs VIX 19 · style factors 31 98.1%ile
20-day window (19 completed days + today); percentiles vs model history since 2020; '3m' tokens rank vs the trailing 63 trading days; definitions in Terms below. Implied prints (Cboe) are delayed ~15 min. as of 13:58 ET
Top 50 high-beta momentum names (eq-wt, since-2020 rank): -4.4% 6.2%ile · rest of market +0.4%
HF de-risking score (since-2020 rank so far today): 55%ile today · 28%ile 5-day · HF pain index 9.1σ below peak (3rd-deepest of 32 since 2020), 42% won back · covering plus selling
| Factor | Today | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Style-Risk | |||||
| Beta | -1.59% z-1.6 | -0.75% | +1.34% | -4.59% | -9.56% |
| International | +0.17% z+0.6 | -0.10% | -0.89% | -1.95% | -1.15% |
| Residual Volatility | -0.04% z-0.1 | -0.17% | +0.65% | -1.14% | -1.03% |
| Style | |||||
| Leverage | -0.15% z-0.9 | -0.09% | +0.20% | +0.80% | -1.66% |
| Dividend Yield | -0.12% z-0.7 | +0.18% | +0.13% | -0.58% | -1.66% |
| Size | -0.15% z-0.4 | +0.77% | +0.76% | -1.90% | +2.49% |
| Profitability | +0.07% z+0.4 | +0.13% | +0.51% | +0.45% | +1.72% |
| Growth | -0.07% z-0.3 | +0.22% | +0.64% | -1.45% | -1.20% |
| Value | +0.04% z+0.2 | +0.17% | +0.62% | -0.87% | -0.09% |
| Liquidity | +0.04% z+0.1 | -0.48% | -0.53% | -1.98% | -1.74% |
| Style-Momentum | |||||
| Long-Term Momentum | -0.47% z-0.7 | +0.33% | +1.01% | -4.29% | -3.84% |
| Medium-Term Momentum | +0.18% z+0.6 | -0.63% | -0.74% | -0.91% | -1.88% |
| Style-Positioning | |||||
| Short Interest | +0.14% z+0.8 | -0.29% | -0.97% | +0.54% | -0.97% |
| Hedge-Fund Ownership | +0.00% z+0.0 | -0.03% | -0.09% | +0.21% | -0.49% |
| Style-Flow | |||||
| Short-Term Momentum | -0.23% z-0.8 | -0.05% | -1.99% | -0.79% | -0.32% |
| One-Day Momentum | -0.19% z-0.7 | +0.30% | +1.20% | +2.27% | -0.33% |
| Short-Sale Activity | +0.05% z+0.4 | +0.05% | +0.04% | -0.43% | -0.13% |
| Morning Activity | +0.02% z+0.2 | -0.09% | -0.65% | -1.12% | -1.86% |
| Thematic | |||||
| Semiconductors | -0.65% z-1.0 | +0.65% | +2.42% | -2.45% | -4.96% |
| Bitcoin / Crypto | +0.14% z+0.5 | -0.01% | -0.34% | -1.61% | -1.00% |
| Gold | +0.12% z+0.4 | -0.43% | -2.10% | -1.28% | -1.77% |
| Treasury (Duration) | +0.12% z+0.4 | -0.61% | -0.74% | +1.10% | -2.11% |
| China | +0.13% z+0.3 | -0.41% | -0.53% | -0.64% | -0.95% |
| Oil | +0.07% z+0.1 | +0.49% | +0.79% | -4.40% | -2.46% |
5/20/60d windows include today's session; 1d is the previous session.
Market variance share. The fraction of cross-sectional variance explained by the market factor — the attribution companion to pairwise correlation, not a substitute for it.
Factor z-score. Today's factor return divided by its daily-return standard deviation over ~1,600 trading days.
Stock-specific (idiosyncratic) return. The part of a stock's move not explained by the market, style or thematic (industry and theme) factors in the FactorPulse risk model.
Data compiled by FactorPulse AI; edited and verified by Jeff Klein. For informational purposes only. Does not constitute financial advice, an investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Always consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
For more on factor construction methodology, see www.factorpulse.com/glossary.
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