Intel's Weak Outlook Sends Its Shares Down 29%; Consumer Staples End Best Month Since 2019

Intel's shares fell 29% after the chipmaker forecast fourth-quarter revenue of $15 billion to $16 billion, short of the roughly $17 billion analysts expected. It also flagged an explosion at its plant in Israel, and finance chief David Zinsner warned that free cash flow would stay negative into 2027 as spending rises. The outlook overshadowed a third-quarter beat and landed hardest on the stocks that typically move most with the overall market, the same ones that had led the late-October rebound. The semiconductor fund SMH fell 7% and AMD lost 11%, losses that came mostly from their tendency to move more than the overall market, not from anything specific to chipmaking. The S&P 500 fell nearly 2%, and Wall Street's fear gauge jumped above 20 from 17.

The selling concentrated in the 50 high-beta stocks that had risen most over the past year. They fell nearly 10%, their ninth-worst day since 2020, while the rest of the market slipped less than half a percent. Hedge funds have been pulling back for weeks. Goldman Sachs's prime brokerage reported its clients' heaviest selling of individual stocks since late July in the week to October 23, and data cited by Morningstar showed about $20 billion of net technology selling in the two weeks to October 26. A FactorPulse gauge of hedge-fund losses closed Friday at a new low, just below its October 22 trough. Amazon's 1% slip came entirely from that broad selloff rather than from its report, which missed estimates despite 39% growth at its AWS cloud unit.

The day's gains were in the market's defensive corners. Consumer staples and health care closed their best and second-best months since 2019: the consumer-staples fund XLP rose 1% Friday for an October gain of about 11%, and the health-care fund XLV finished the month up about 10%. Drugmakers led on their own results, with Regeneron up 13% after taking the full profit share on its eczema drug Dupixent and AstraZeneca up 7%. Treasuries rallied, pulling the 10-year yield down to about 4.93%, but corporate bonds failed to keep pace for a second straight day, a sign lenders want more to hold company debt. Oil climbed to about $103 a barrel after Iran said four tankers hit mines in the Strait of Hormuz, and bitcoin fell 5% to about $77,000 as investigators chase $6.3 billion stolen from the crypto exchange Binance.

Intel closed down 29.0% after its outlook overshadowed a third-quarter beat. It guided fourth-quarter revenue to $15 billion–$16 billion and adjusted earnings to 25 cents a share, against estimates of $17 billion and 43 cents. It also flagged an explosion at its Israeli plant Economic Times. CFO David Zinsner warned that free cash flow would stay negative into 2027 as spending rises Economic Times. Amazon fell 1.4% after its consolidated results missed consensus The Wall Street Journal. Its stock-specific move was a gain of 1.9%, so its market and style exposures account for the whole decline.

Earnings reactions in the regular sessionReporters worth over $100 billion, or moving more than 10% with a value above $5 billion

Company	Move	Stock-specific	Market cap	Revenue YoY	Margin YoY	What drove it
Reddit RDDT	-29.3%	-26.8%	$25B	+53%	+5.5 pts operating	—
Intel INTC	-29.0%	-19.9%	$487B	+21%	+8.4 pts adj. operating	Q4 guidance miss, Israeli plant disruption Economic Times
Credit Acceptance CACC	-19.3%	-20.6%	$6B	—	—	Loan collection forecast cut, quarterly net loss Nasdaq
Illumina ILMN	-18.6%	-14.0%	$44B	+4%	+1.4 pts adj. operating	Beat estimates and raised guidance
Roblox RBLX	-17.6%	-15.7%	$38B	+16%	—	—
TFI International TFII	-17.3%	-15.5%	$9B	—	—	—
Twilio TWLO	-14.9%	-8.6%	$37B	+20%	+2.9 pts adj. operating	—
Sandisk SNDK	-13.5%	-2.7%	$192B	+378%	+69.8 pts adj. operating	Beat, but sequential growth slowed
Coinbase Global COIN	-10.8%	-4.5%	$42B	-35%	-20.6 pts operating	—
Sensient Technology SXT	-10.3%	-8.9%	$6B	—	—	—
Stryker SYK	-6.4%	-7.3%	$120B	+8%	+0.6 pts adj. operating	Revenue miss, trimmed full-year EPS guidance
Starbucks SBUX	-1.8%	-2.0%	$120B	-4%	+4.6 pts adj. operating	—
Amazon AMZN	-1.4%	+1.9%	$2.6T	+12%	+4.2 pts operating	Consolidated results missed despite 39% AWS growth The Wall Street Journal
General Dynamics GD	+0.5%	+0.1%	$100B	+13%	+0.2 pts operating	—
Chevron CVX	+1.9% light volume	-0.5%	$454B	+35%†	+9.0 pts† operating	—
ExxonMobil XOM	+2.0%	-0.1%	$754B	—	—	Beat on record refining margins
Sanofi SNY	+2.8%	+2.7%	$103B	—	—	—
Gilead Sciences GILD	+3.1%	+2.6%	$205B	+7%	-0.3 pts adj. operating	—
AstraZeneca AZN	+6.9%	+6.0%	$270B	—	—	Oncology-led beat, new cost-savings program
GoDaddy GDDY	+10.8%	+10.6%	$13B	—	—	—
BrightSpring Health Services BTSG	+11.0%	+8.1%	$12B	—	—	—
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals REGN	+13.3%	+13.0%	$84B	+36%	+12.7 pts operating	Earnings beat, full Dupixent profit share
FedEx Freight FDXF	+15.2%	+15.3%	$16B	—	—	—

Stock-specific: the part of a stock's move not explained by the market, style or thematic (industry and theme) factors in the FactorPulse risk model.

Revenue and margin from the company's earnings release, year over year; margin change in percentage points; — where the release is not parsed or the figures failed checks.

† The company's year-ago figure differs from the one originally filed, usually a restatement; growth is on its current basis.

Light volume: the company's earnings filing confirms the report, but trading volume has not caught up yet, so the move is an early read.

Of the 500 largest companies, 271 have reported (58% of market cap), on day 22 of the season.

How earnings reactions split, day 22 of the seasonThe 500 largest US companies with a confirmed earnings reaction so far (254), vs the same day in the past eight seasons and in four-season stretches back to mid-2020

Earnings reactions this season vs the past eight seasons, day 22 — Weighted by size, 23% of this season's reporters rose 2σ or more on a stock-specific basis, against 34% at this point in the past eight seasons; 26% fell 2σ or more (past: 34%).

Earnings reactions this season vs the past eight seasons, day 22
Season	≤ −5σ	−5 to −2σ	−2 to 0σ	0 to 2σ	2 to 5σ	≥ 5σ
This season	9%	17%	27%	24%	19%	4%
Past 8 seasons	15%	18%	16%	17%	18%	16%
Q2 2026	16%	21%	16%	13%	19%	15%
Q1 2026	12%	20%	12%	19%	19%	17%
Q4 2025	17%	17%	20%	14%	18%	14%
Q3 2025	12%	20%	18%	18%	16%	16%
Q2 2025	17%	20%	14%	15%	15%	19%
Q1 2025	18%	12%	15%	22%	22%	11%
Q4 2024	18%	14%	18%	19%	17%	13%
Q3 2024	15%	20%	15%	13%	20%	18%
Q3 '23–Q2 '24	17%	17%	16%	15%	19%	17%
Q3 '22–Q2 '23	12%	19%	19%	18%	20%	11%
Q3 '21–Q2 '22	13%	19%	14%	19%	23%	12%
Q3 '20–Q2 '21	7%	21%	29%	22%	17%	4%

σ: a stock's earnings-day stock-specific move divided by its typical daily stock-specific move over the past year. Each bar is cut at the same business day of the season; companies weighted by the square root of market cap.

Beta Fell 3.5% and Drove Most of the Chip Selloff

Beta lost 3.47% (z=-3.6), taking its 20-session loss to 13.24% (z=-3.1) and erasing the October 27 rebound: over five days the factor is now down 0.62%. Style factors explained 44% of stock-level variance today, nearly double their 23% one-year average.

Factor	Return	Z-Score	5d Z	20d Z	63d Z	Category	Direction
Beta	-3.47%	-3.6	-0.3	-3.1	-1.0	Style-Risk	High-beta names lagged
One-Day Momentum	+0.50%	+1.8	+1.1	+0.4	-1.6	Style-Momentum	Yesterday's losers kept falling
Medium-Term Momentum	+0.49%	+1.7	-1.9	-0.9	-0.5	Style-Momentum	1-month losers fell further
Short Interest	+0.25%	+1.5	+0.0	+0.9	-0.3	Style-Positioning	Most-shorted names outperformed
Morning Activity	+0.17%	+1.4	-0.5	-0.3	+0.6	Style-Flow	Morning-heavy names outperformed
Bitcoin / Crypto	-0.38%	-1.2	-3.5	-0.9	+0.4	Thematic	Crypto-linked names lagged
Semiconductors	-0.74%	-1.2	+0.8	-1.7	-0.6	Thematic	Chip exposure lagged modestly
Hedge-Fund Ownership	-0.10%	-0.9	-0.4	-0.4	-0.8	Style-Positioning	Hedge-fund-owned names lagged

The Semiconductors factor fell just 0.74% (z=-1.2) while SMH dropped 6.9%: most of the chip selloff came through beta, not the industry factor. Nvidia's 4.2% drop and CoreWeave's 9.6% slide came almost entirely through factor exposures, and AMD lost nearly two-thirds of its 10.8% the same way. Twenty-day momentum (Medium-Term Momentum in the table) rose 0.49% (z=+1.7), the same selling seen from another angle: a month of losses has put high-beta names in the factor's losers basket, so a gain in the factor means they fell further.

The Top 50 High-Beta Momentum Names Had Their 9th-Worst Day Since 2020

Today's Return by Beta Exposure z=-3.6
Bucket	Avg Ret Pct
1	1.49
2	0.74
3	0.58
4	0.09
5	0.33
6	-0.15
7	-0.05
8	-0.33
9	-0.37
10	-0.82
11	-0.93
12	-1.42
13	-1.78
14	-1.94
15	-2.68
16	-3.59
17	-3.95
18	-5.11
19	-6.58
20	-8.18

The top 50 high-beta momentum names fell 9.5%, the 9th-worst session of 1,716 since 2020, while the rest of the market slipped 0.4% and the broader group of about 190 names lost 7.0%. Splitting the screen shows what was sold: stocks with high beta alone fell 4.9%, but those with only strong 12-month momentum fell just 0.8%. Implied index volatility (Cboe VIX) rose to 20.54 from 17.20, above its October 16 close of 19.99.

The Hedge-Fund Pain Index Made a New Low

High-Beta Momentum Cohort — Today's Session Path
Series	Ret Pct
joint	-6.96
tight50	-9.45
market	-1.61
rest	-0.40

The hedge-fund pain index closed at a new low, 9.5 daily standard deviations below its October 6 peak and just past its October 22 trough, the 7th-deepest of 32 such drawdowns since 2020. Our HF de-risking score shows the pattern behind it: over 20 days it sits at the 97th percentile since 2020, consistent with a de-gross in which 12-month winners fell, the most-shorted names rose, and last week's moves kept going instead of reversing. The most-shorted names outperformed again today (Short Interest +0.25%, z=+1.5).

HF pain index vs its October 6 peak (daily σ)
Date	σ vs peak
September 24	-1.05
September 25	-0.40
September 28	-0.97
September 29	-0.52
September 30	-0.98
October 1	-0.37
October 2	-0.03
October 5	-0.47
October 6	0.00
October 7	-0.18
October 8	-0.86
October 9	-0.62
October 12	-1.47
October 13	-1.46
October 14	-2.82
October 15	-4.07
October 16	-4.86
October 19	-4.55
October 20	-5.45
October 21	-4.86
October 22	-9.42
October 23	-9.29
October 26	-8.57
October 27	-7.57
October 28	-6.98
October 29	-7.52
October 30	-9.51

Goldman Sachs Prime Brokerage reported the heaviest single-stock de-grossing since late July in the week to October 23, and prime-brokerage data for the two weeks ending October 26 showed about $20 billion of net technology selling, according to Morningstar. Today's selling, though, did not single out hedge-fund favorites. The top 50 lean toward stocks that trade heavily with retail investors, and hedge funds own no more of them than of the market overall. Hedge-fund-owned stocks lagged by 0.21% on a raw basis (z=-1.4), but by only 0.10% once beta and momentum are stripped out.

Staples and Health Care Posted Their Best Months Since 2019

High-Beta Momentum Cohort — Level Since 2025
Series	Prev Close Level
joint	452.54
tight50	473.93
market	444.18

XLP rose 1.3% to finish October up about 11.1%, the staples fund's best month since 2019, and XLV's gain of about 9.7% was its second-best over the same span. XLE added 1.9% as oil rose. The funds that had led last week's rebound fell hardest; DRAM, SMH and WGMI had gained 4.3% to 13.3% over the prior five sessions.

Within health care, drugmakers beat life-science tools makers on company-specific moves, led by AstraZeneca and Regeneron on their results.

Bitcoin Fell 5% as Gold and Silver Extended a Weak Month

ETF	Theme	Today	1d Ago	5d Ago	20d Ago	63d Ago
WGMI	crypto miners	-8.4%	-5.2%	+4.3%	-30.0%	-39.6%
DRAM	memory chips & storage	-7.2%	-4.4%	+13.3%	-16.6%	+2.7%
SMH	semiconductors	-6.9%	-1.1%	+7.3%	-9.1%	+3.9%
SLV	silver	-5.7%	-3.6%	-4.2%	-14.1%	-9.7%
XLK	technology	-5.0%	-1.2%	+3.5%	-4.6%	+7.8%
SPY	large cap	-1.8%	-0.4%	+0.7%	+0.7%	+3.2%
XLV	healthcare	+0.4%	+2.4%	+1.5%	+10.7%	+13.7%
XLP	consumer staples	+1.3%	+1.5%	-2.0%	+9.8%	+4.4%
XLE	energy	+1.9%	+0.4%	+1.7%	+9.6%	+16.1%

Bitcoin fell 5.0% to $76,738.80 at 4:10 PM CNBC as investigators chase $6.3 billion stolen from Binance, the largest crypto theft to date NYT. Every crypto-linked group fell with it, from exchanges and brokers (median -9.4%) to miners now renting out capacity for AI computing (median -8.9%), and WGMI's 36.7% October drop is its second-worst month since 2022. The Bitcoin / Crypto factor lost 0.38% (z=-1.2) and 2.39% over five days (z=-3.5). Gold fell 3.3% to $3,886.18 at 4:10 PM CNBC, and SLV's 18.3% October loss is its third-worst month since 2019.

Treasuries Rallied While Corporate Bond Funds Lagged

Currency & precious-metal ETFs (SLV, GLD, GDX, WGMI) — Cumulative Total Return, 1 Month
T	SLV	GLD	GDX	WGMI
2026-10-01	0.94	0.50	-1.21	-1.09
2026-10-02	0.42	-0.18	-0.02	0.91
2026-10-05	1.14	-0.34	-0.43	-1.29
2026-10-06	1.72	0.38	0.48	-0.09
2026-10-07	-1.27	-1.30	-2.67	-4.34
2026-10-08	-1.94	-0.58	-1.23	-10.46
2026-10-09	0.50	0.98	1.69	-10.44
2026-10-12	-0.29	0.34	0.83	-13.11
2026-10-13	-1.87	0.22	-0.64	-15.76
2026-10-14	-7.87	-1.27	-5.01	-24.75
2026-10-15	-4.75	0.49	-0.89	-22.75
2026-10-16	-5.50	0.31	-0.10	-30.36
2026-10-19	-5.45	-0.30	-1.51	-29.82
2026-10-20	-4.38	-0.84	-1.94	-29.71
2026-10-21	-4.13	-0.50	-1.23	-27.82
2026-10-22	-9.48	-3.11	-6.96	-33.66
2026-10-23	-10.62	-3.74	-8.66	-35.37
2026-10-26	-10.73	-3.42	-7.72	-35.57
2026-10-27	-9.81	-2.25	-5.25	-30.45
2026-10-28	-10.00	-1.92	-4.39	-27.04
2026-10-29	-13.26	-3.22	-7.37	-30.80
2026-10-30	-18.26	-6.47	-12.03	-36.70

The 10-year Treasury yield fell 6.4 basis points to 4.925%, and the 2-year fell 7.1 basis points to 4.585% CNBC. TLT's 0.3% gain was close to what that move implies, but corporate bond funds fell short for a second straight day. LQD gained just 0.02% and HYG fell 0.2%, each about half a percentage point below what the Treasury rally implied, after LQD trailed by about 0.7 points on Thursday.

Lenders are pricing the AI buildout borrower by borrower. Microsoft sold $25 billion of bonds on October 29 at about 64 basis points over Treasuries FourWeekMBA, while CoreWeave's 2031 notes yielded 15.5% on October 20, up from 11.3% in August Benzinga.

WTI crude rose 1.1% to $103.07 at 4:00 PM CNBC after Iran said four tankers had hit mines in the Strait of Hormuz Financial Times. Over the past 20 sessions oil rose 12.1% while the 10-year yield fell about 25 basis points and SMH lost 9.1%; chip stocks and yields falling together suggests bond investors are pricing weaker growth.

Economic Context

The Employment Cost Index, released at 8:30 AM ET, rose 0.8% in the third quarter, in line with consensus. Wages rose 0.7% and annual compensation growth held at 3.4% BLS. The New York Fed's Staff Nowcast, updated at 12:45 PM ET, kept its fourth-quarter growth estimate at 2.8%.

Factor Regime Reference

Variance decomposition: live intraday — 20261030 session, bracketed against its trailing-year range. Factor returns are trailing through last close. Total cross-sectional dispersion: 98.0%ile of the past year.

Variance mix — % of total, today vs 1d ago vs 1-yr avg

market 81%ile style 92.4%ile thematic 2.0%ile idiosyncratic 6.4%ile

Today (live)

14%44%41%

1d ago

15%79%

1-yr avg

23%65%

Variance explained — today vs. factor's trailing-year range

Marker = the factor's share of today's total variance, placed in its own trailing-year range (box 25–75%ile, ticks 90%ile and max). Amber marker = unusually load-bearing today (≥90%ile of its own year). Factor name green = up today / red = down.

Correlation & dispersion — realized vs implied

Pairwise realized correlation (20d): 9.00% 6.7%ile since 2020 · 64%ile 3m

Top-500 pairwise: 10.81% 11%ile since 2020 · 62%ile 3m · implied (Cboe COR1M): 15.04 12%ile since 2006 (gap -4.2pp)

Realized 20d vol (ann. pts): all stocks 45 vs VIXEQ 43 · index 12 vs VIX 21 · style factors 26 88%ile

20-day window (19 completed days + today); percentiles vs model history since 2020; '3m' tokens rank vs the trailing 63 trading days; definitions in Terms below. Implied prints (Cboe) are delayed ~15 min. as of 15:58 ET

Top 50 high-beta momentum names (eq-wt, since-2020 rank): -9.4% 0.5%ile · rest of market -0.4%

HF de-risking score (since-2020 rank): 82%ile today · 36%ile 5-day · HF pain index 9.5σ below peak (7th-deepest of 32 since 2020), 0% won back · covering plus selling

Trailing factor returns

Factor	Today	1d	5d	20d	60d
Style-Risk
Beta	-3.47% z-3.6	-1.26%	-0.62%	-13.24%	-9.16%
Residual Volatility	-0.09% z-0.2	-0.55%	-0.82%	-0.48%	+2.70%
International	-0.02% z-0.1	-0.26%	-1.12%	-0.92%	-0.51%
Style
Leverage	+0.21% z+1.2	+0.50%	+1.17%	+0.33%	-2.07%
Value	+0.23% z+1.0	-0.17%	-0.13%	-0.29%	-0.04%
Liquidity	-0.15% z-0.6	-0.15%	-0.13%	-0.42%	+2.15%
Dividend Yield	-0.07% z-0.4	+0.17%	+0.39%	-0.08%	+0.48%
Profitability	-0.05% z-0.3	+0.42%	+0.09%	+0.91%	+0.09%
Growth	-0.00% z-0.0	-0.17%	-0.20%	-0.37%	-0.14%
Size	+0.00% z+0.0	-0.82%	-0.93%	-0.81%	+1.83%
Style-Momentum
One-Day Momentum	+0.50% z+1.8	+0.13%	+0.70%	+0.47%	-2.71%
Medium-Term Momentum	+0.49% z+1.7	+0.04%	-1.19%	-1.18%	-1.06%
Short-Term Momentum	-0.29% z-1.0	+0.24%	-0.44%	+2.32%	+0.26%
Long-Term Momentum	-0.53% z-0.8	-0.53%	-0.16%	-3.58%	+0.24%
Style-Positioning
Short Interest	+0.25% z+1.5	-0.04%	+0.01%	+0.65%	-0.38%
Hedge-Fund Ownership	-0.10% z-0.9	+0.12%	-0.11%	-0.19%	-0.64%
Style-Flow
Morning Activity	+0.17% z+1.4	-0.21%	-0.13%	-0.18%	+0.42%
Short-Sale Activity	+0.03% z+0.3	+0.25%	-0.03%	+0.25%	+0.88%
Thematic
Bitcoin / Crypto	-0.38% z-1.2	-1.03%	-2.39%	-1.16%	+0.93%
Semiconductors	-0.74% z-1.2	-0.06%	+1.11%	-4.60%	-2.93%
Treasury (Duration)	+0.25% z+0.8	+0.48%	+0.83%	+2.19%	-1.09%
Oil	+0.26% z+0.5	-0.67%	-0.27%	-0.36%	+4.57%
Gold	-0.16% z-0.5	-0.29%	-0.17%	-1.31%	+1.05%
China	-0.13% z-0.3	-0.36%	-1.00%	-0.80%	-0.76%

5/20/60d windows include today's session; 1d is the previous session.

Terms

Pairwise realized correlation. Index variance net of the weighted idiosyncratic diagonal, over the cross terms — the estimator used for implied-correlation indices. 20-day window unless noted; history since 2020.

Market variance share. The fraction of cross-sectional variance explained by the market factor — the attribution companion to pairwise correlation, not a substitute for it.

Factor z-score. Today's factor return divided by its daily-return standard deviation over ~1,600 trading days.

Conditional importance. A factor's relative share of what a tree-based fit of today's stock returns explains; sums to 100% across factors.

High-beta momentum cohort. US names above $2B market cap in the top quintile of both raw beta and 12-month momentum; membership frozen at each month's first business day. “Top 50” = the 50 strongest by combined rank.

HF de-risking score. A FactorPulse measure of de-risking in factor returns: the average of four legs, each in its own daily-volatility units and counted only when it moves in the de-risking direction. They are the most-shorted names rising, 12-month momentum winners falling, names crowded in hedge-fund 13F filings falling net of their beta and momentum, and last week's relative moves continuing instead of reverting (counted only alongside another leg). A leg counts as firing at half its daily volatility or more, so a leg can show a small value without firing. Types: A, covering and selling together; B, selling only; C, covering only. Ranked against every session since January 2020. It reads factor returns only, never positions.

Dispersion (realized). Total cross-sectional volatility net of the market component; high dispersion is the flip side of low correlation.

Stock-specific (idiosyncratic) return. The part of a stock's move not explained by the market, style or thematic (industry and theme) factors in the FactorPulse risk model.

VIXEQ / DSPX / COR1M. Cboe implied indices: single-stock volatility, dispersion, and 1-month implied correlation (top-50 S&P names). Quotes delayed ~15 minutes.

Data compiled by FactorPulse AI; edited and verified by Jeff Klein. For informational purposes only. Does not constitute financial advice, an investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Always consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.