Three officials voted to hike, Chair Kevin Warsh called the split a "good family fight" and formally retired forward guidance, and the 30-year Treasury yield reached its highest since 2007The Wall Street JournalBloomberg. The curve did the rest of the talking: the 20-year at 5.232% is up 7.8 bp and the 30-year at 5.212% up 6.9 bp against a 3-month bill that barely moved, with the 10-year at 4.687%CNBC. Iran fired five ballistic missiles at a US base in Jordan the same morning, and crude held above $84 after a near-7% surgeThe Wall Street JournalBloomberg. A higher discount rate and a higher oil price hit the same book from both ends.
| Factor | Return | Z-Score | 5d Z | 20d Z | 63d Z | Category | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -3.00% | z=-3.1 | -3.8 | -3.6 | -0.8 | Style-Risk | Most market-sensitive names underperformed |
| Morning Activity | +0.35% | z=+2.7 | +0.7 | +0.7 | -0.7 | Style-Flow | Habitually morning-heavy names outperformed |
| One-Day Momentum | +0.69% | z=+2.4 | +3.8 | +0.4 | +1.5 | Style-Momentum | Yesterday's moves continued |
| Liquidity | -0.59% | z=-2.0 | -3.2 | -0.9 | -1.2 | Style | Highest-turnover names lagged the quietest |
| Short-Sale Activity | -0.17% | z=-1.5 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | Style-Flow | Yesterday's short-sale flow paid off T+1 |
| Short Interest | +0.22% | z=+1.2 | +2.1 | +0.8 | +1.6 | Style-Positioning | Most heavily shorted names outperformed |
| Semiconductors | -0.81% | z=-1.4 | -4.1 | -2.9 | -0.7 | Thematic | Chip-exposed names lagged |
Beta alone explains 30% of today's cross-sectional variance, its 99.3rd percentile since 2020, and the sort is close to perfectly ordered — the most market-sensitive names down -7.8%, the least market-sensitive up +2.6% on the strength of energy exploration and refining. This is the fifth consecutive down session for the factor, -8.24% over five days and -15.94% over twenty. MTUM confirms it from the outside, -3.88% today and -13.00% over twenty sessions while still +4.12% over sixty-three — the give-back is a month old, not a quarter old.
| Bucket | Ret 1D Pct | Ret 5D Norm Pct | Ret 20D Norm Pct | Ret 63D Norm Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2.58 | -0.05 | 1.93 | 0.32 |
| 2 | 1.14 | 1.46 | 1.88 | 1.13 |
| 3 | 0.65 | 1.31 | 1.42 | 0.86 |
| 4 | 0.10 | 1.49 | 0.83 | 0.33 |
| 5 | -0.15 | 1.42 | 1.35 | 0.75 |
| 6 | 0.34 | 1.13 | 1.15 | 1.32 |
| 7 | -0.47 | 1.35 | 1.48 | 1.00 |
| 8 | -0.62 | 0.91 | 0.67 | 0.97 |
| 9 | -0.51 | 1.34 | 1.14 | 1.35 |
| 10 | -1.49 | 1.01 | 0.55 | 1.30 |
| 11 | -0.41 | 0.68 | 0.80 | 1.29 |
| 12 | -1.61 | 0.14 | -0.01 | 0.83 |
| 13 | -2.04 | 0.62 | 0.48 | 0.97 |
| 14 | -2.28 | 0.91 | 0.40 | 1.33 |
| 15 | -2.57 | -0.09 | -0.15 | 1.13 |
| 16 | -3.37 | -0.62 | -0.78 | 0.75 |
| 17 | -3.63 | -1.02 | -1.22 | 0.54 |
| 18 | -4.17 | -2.78 | -2.63 | -0.20 |
| 19 | -5.85 | -4.13 | -3.68 | -0.59 |
| 20 | -7.79 | -6.04 | -6.39 | -2.35 |
The crowded high-beta momentum cohort is where it concentrates. The top 50 such names are down -8.63%, the ninth-worst session of 1,650 since 2020, and the wider ~190-name group -6.00%, against -0.57% for everything that fails both screens. The top 50 moved 1.44× the broader group today versus a 1.14× norm: the more a name fit the profile, the harder it fell. Yesterday's session gave a split read on how — volume ran a shade below the pace of the wider market, which argues marked-down rather than sold, while the group moved as one basket at the 88th percentile of its 60-day norm and the easiest-to-sell names went first, at -5.81% against -3.25% for the least liquid. Liquidity at z=-2.0 extends that today: the highest-turnover names, the most heavily optioned part of the market and largely the same list, fell -6.7%. The faces are SMCI -10.86%, WOLF -10.77%, SNDK -9.18% and MRVL -8.39%, almost none of it company-specific.
| Series | Ret Pct |
|---|---|
| joint | -6.00 |
| tight50 | -8.63 |
| market | -1.71 |
| rest | -0.57 |
For a month the equity market has been having a violent argument with itself in near-total silence at the index level: over the trailing twenty sessions the market leg of variance is worth 9.9 vol points, the 5.7th percentile since 2020, while the style block runs 28.8 points at the 96.5th. That is why realized pairwise correlation sits at 5.44%, the 0.7th percentile since 2020, and the top-500 like-for-like at 7.04%. Today changed the fast clock, not the slow one. The five-day gauge is at 8.92%, its 58.7th percentile of the past three months against 25.4th at yesterday's close; index vol woke up with it, the VIX at 20.66 from 18.21, and Cboe's one-month implied single-stock correlation jumped to 11.97 from 7.76 — still inside the lowest 6.2% of its twenty-year history, and a premium to trailing realized. Twenty-day pairwise correlation carries several points of sampling noise, so one session does not reset the twenty-day picture; what it does is put the index on the same side of the trade as the factor for the first time this month.
| Series | Today Pct | Prev Close Pct |
|---|---|---|
| pairwise_model | 5.44 | 4.01 |
| pairwise_top500 | 7.04 | 5.02 |
| implied_cor1m |
Roughly half of today's cross-sectional variance is still stock-specific, and the earnings tape was paid on merit: Huron Consulting +40.07% on a record quarter and raised guidance, the largest stock-specific move in its trailing year; Manhattan Associates +21.64%; Lithia Motors +18.70% on an earnings beat and a $500 million buyback increase while Carvana fell on soft 2026 guidanceCNBC; Garmin +16.90%. Short Interest at z=+1.2 fits that picture — the most heavily shorted names outperformed, running against one of the model's most persistent effects rather than establishing anything new.
The geopolitical bid was narrow. USO +7.69% and XOP +3.48% took the Iran headline and a 7.2 million-barrel crude drawThe Wall Street Journal, helped by a dollar index down -0.61% to 100.80CNBC; gold managed +0.96% and defense went the other way entirely, XAR -6.06% and ITA -4.03% after a week of gains. Industrials were the day's worst median sector at -3.46%, with Caterpillar -7.48% after Baird cut it to Neutral and slashed its target to $900, citing state and local resistance that delayed or blocked 75 data-center projects worth roughly $130 billion in the first quarter aloneBarron's. Vertiv -18.77% on a revenue miss sat next to Microsoft disclosing more than $130 billion of new data-center leasesBloomberg — the demand is arriving, the equipment revenue is not yet. Korea remains the epicentre of the memory-chip leg, EWY -5.82% and -23.32% over twenty sessions after a second consecutive circuit breaker in SeoulNYT.
| ETF | Theme | Today | 1d Ago | 5d Ago | 20d Ago | 63d Ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | oil | +7.69% | -3.42% | -6.49% | +12.52% | -10.56% |
| XOP | oil E&P | +3.48% | -1.60% | -4.29% | +7.08% | -1.84% |
| GLD | gold | +0.96% | -1.40% | -1.45% | +0.21% | -14.08% |
| SPY | large cap | -1.79% | +0.24% | -0.99% | -0.02% | +3.59% |
| QQQ | large cap growth | -2.62% | -0.97% | -4.72% | -6.71% | +1.70% |
| MTUM | momentum | -3.88% | -3.31% | -7.05% | -13.00% | +4.12% |
| XAR | defense | -6.06% | -0.42% | +2.65% | -1.83% | +5.40% |
| EWY | south korea | -5.82% | -6.05% | -12.41% | -23.32% | -3.37% |
| SMH | semiconductors | -5.87% | -3.45% | -9.33% | -16.20% | +4.61% |
| DRAM | memory chips & storage | -8.49% | -8.89% | -18.83% | -33.60% | +23.85% |
Where to look tonight: the beta-carried complex is MTUM, SMH, DRAM, AIPO and EWY, with VXX +7.31% on twice the typical ETF pace as the hedge; the other side is USO, XOP and XLE +1.81%. Among single names, Meta is down -11.01% and Qualcomm -11.02% ahead of tonight's reports, both moves overwhelmingly their own rather than the factor complex, while Arm is down -14.96% with more than half of that carried by its beta exposure and a further -6.46% in the last hour. KLA, which reported a record quarter, is -12.21% and $30 billion smallerNYT — the clearest evidence that in this part of the market results are not currently the binding constraint. One oddity worth a flag: MDY traded at 5.3× the typical ETF pace for a move of only -1.98%, heavy mid-cap volume with no matching price damage.
The Fed Interest Rate Decision, released at 2:00 PM ET, held the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% on a 9-3 vote — the highest dissent count since 1992, with Hammack, Kashkari and Logan preferring an immediate 25 bp hikeThe Wall Street Journal. At the 2:30 PM ET press conference Warsh reaffirmed a strict 2% target and signalled a permanent end to telegraphed guidance, and long-end yields extended their rise through the hourAP News.
Variance decomposition: live intraday — 20260729 session, bracketed against its trailing-year range. Factor returns are trailing through last close. Total cross-sectional dispersion: 98.4%ile of the past year.
Variance mix — % of total, today vs 1d ago vs 1-yr avg
market 77%ile style 91.2%ile thematic 2.8%ile idiosyncratic 15%ile
Variance explained — today vs. factor's trailing-year range
Marker = the factor's share of today's total variance, placed in its own trailing-year range (box 25–75%ile, ticks 90%ile and max). Amber marker = unusually load-bearing today (≥90%ile of its own year). Factor name green = up today / red = down.
Correlation & dispersion — realized vs implied
Pairwise realized correlation (20d): 5.44% 0.7%ile since 2020 · 19%ile 3m
Top-500 pairwise: 7.04% 2.5%ile since 2020 · 18%ile 3m · implied (Cboe COR1M): 11.97 6.2%ile of its own history (gap -4.9pp)
5-day gauge: 8.92% — 59%ile of the past 3 months (lifting off the record lows)
Realized 20d vol (ann. pts): all stocks 47 vs VIXEQ 48 · index 10 vs VIX 21 · style factors 29 96.5%ile
20-day window (19 completed days + today); percentiles vs model history since 2020; '3m' tokens rank vs the trailing 63 trading days; definitions in Terms below. Implied prints (Cboe) are delayed ~15 min. as of 17:58 ET
Top 50 high-beta momentum names (eq-wt, since-2020 rank): -8.6% 0.5%ile worst since 2026-07-02 · rest of market -0.6%
| Factor | Today | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Style-Risk | |||||
| Beta | -3.00% z-3.1 | -2.38% | -8.24% | -15.94% | -7.23% |
| International | +0.35% z+1.1 | -0.06% | +0.16% | +1.41% | -1.12% |
| Residual Volatility | +0.06% z+0.1 | -0.40% | -0.79% | -1.94% | -2.57% |
| Style | |||||
| Liquidity | -0.59% z-2.0 | -0.62% | -2.11% | -1.22% | -3.39% |
| Leverage | -0.23% z-1.3 | -0.08% | -0.55% | -1.22% | -0.95% |
| Dividend Yield | -0.18% z-1.0 | -0.37% | -1.22% | -0.71% | -0.47% |
| Value | -0.21% z-0.8 | +0.21% | +0.28% | +0.49% | -0.85% |
| Profitability | +0.12% z+0.6 | -0.02% | +0.42% | -0.15% | -0.35% |
| Size | -0.15% z-0.4 | -0.09% | -0.94% | -0.69% | -0.86% |
| Growth | -0.03% z-0.1 | +0.19% | +0.62% | +1.35% | +2.39% |
| Style-Momentum | |||||
| One-Day Momentum | +0.69% z+2.4 | +1.23% | +2.48% | +0.49% | +4.35% |
| Medium-Term Momentum | +0.41% z+1.4 | +0.50% | +1.75% | -1.50% | +2.65% |
| Long-Term Momentum | -0.34% z-0.5 | -1.87% | -4.73% | -7.41% | -2.68% |
| Short-Term Momentum | -0.16% z-0.5 | -0.35% | -1.73% | -3.52% | -5.19% |
| Style-Positioning | |||||
| Short Interest | +0.21% z+1.2 | +0.49% | +0.84% | +0.65% | +2.20% |
| Hedge-Fund Ownership | +0.08% z+0.7 | -0.06% | -0.03% | +0.26% | -0.84% |
| Style-Flow | |||||
| Morning Activity | +0.35% z+2.7 | +0.11% | +0.22% | +0.40% | -0.71% |
| Short-Sale Activity | -0.17% z-1.5 | +0.12% | -0.01% | -0.06% | -0.09% |
| Thematic | |||||
| Semiconductors | -0.81% z-1.4 | -2.17% | -5.56% | -7.74% | -4.75% |
| China | +0.45% z+1.1 | +0.38% | +0.47% | +2.29% | -3.29% |
| Oil | +0.49% z+1.0 | -0.87% | -1.78% | -0.24% | -3.06% |
| Treasury (Duration) | +0.26% z+0.8 | +0.10% | +0.41% | +1.26% | +0.94% |
| Bitcoin / Crypto | +0.19% z+0.6 | -0.18% | -0.34% | -0.27% | -1.12% |
| Gold | +0.19% z+0.6 | -0.22% | +0.15% | +2.20% | -2.59% |
5/20/60d windows include today's session; 1d is the previous session.
Pairwise realized correlation. Index variance net of the weighted idiosyncratic diagonal, over the cross terms — the estimator used for implied-correlation indices. 20-day window unless noted; history since 2020.
Market variance share. The fraction of cross-sectional variance explained by the market factor — the attribution companion to pairwise correlation, not a substitute for it.
Factor z-score. Today's factor return divided by its daily-return standard deviation over ~1,600 trading days.
High-beta momentum cohort. US names above $2B market cap in the top quintile of both raw beta and 12-month momentum; membership frozen at each month's first business day. “Top 50” = the 50 strongest by combined rank.
Dispersion (realized). Total cross-sectional volatility net of the market component; high dispersion is the flip side of low correlation.
Stock-specific (idiosyncratic) return. The part of a stock's move not explained by market, style, or thematic factors in our decomposition.
VIXEQ / DSPX / COR1M. Cboe implied indices: single-stock volatility, dispersion, and 1-month implied correlation (top-50 S&P names). Quotes delayed ~15 minutes.
Data compiled by FactorPulse AI; edited and verified by Jeff Klein. For informational purposes only. Does not constitute financial advice, an investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Always consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
For more on factor construction methodology, see www.factorpulse.com/glossary.