Intel rallied +10.81% — adding roughly $66B in market cap — after President Trump said the company struck an agreement with Apple to design and produce chips domestically at Intel's U.S. foundries. Bloomberg The deal is the spark, but it landed on a Semis factor already at z=+2.7 over 63 days — today's +0.92% (z=+1.5) merely extends a months-long regime. SMH is up +6.13% on the session on top of a +58.50% 63-day run, and the highest-exposure decile returned +3.7%, with SNDK +12.81%, MU +10.60%, KLAC +9.36%, MRVL +8.34% and TSM +7.45% all clustered in the top deciles. Micron's $125B market-cap gain rides a memory upcycle that has it sold out of HBM capacity through 2026 ahead of its June 24 print. MarketWatch
| Factor | Return | Z-Score | 5d Z | 20d Z | 63d Z | Category | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semis | +0.92% | +1.5 | +1.4 | +1.7 | +2.7 | Theme | semis outperform |
| Beta | +2.04% | +1.6 | +1.6 | +1.4 | +1.6 | Style | cyclicals outperform |
| MedTermTrend | +0.56% | +1.6 | +0.2 | +1.4 | +0.8 | Style | 1-month winners continue |
| Leverage | +0.21% | +1.5 | +2.0 | +1.2 | +0.5 | Style | high leverage outperforms |
| China | -0.62% | -2.4 | -3.1 | -2.2 | -2.0 | Theme | china underperforms |
| Bucket | Ret 1D Pct | Ret 5D Norm Pct | Ret 20D Norm Pct | Ret 63D Norm Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2.03 | 2.63 | 1.11 | 0.51 |
| 2 | 1.58 | 2.00 | 1.21 | 0.91 |
| 3 | 0.91 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.99 |
| 4 | 0.68 | 1.02 | 1.57 | 0.74 |
| 5 | 0.77 | 0.94 | 1.52 | 0.53 |
| 6 | 1.26 | 0.70 | 1.09 | 0.95 |
| 7 | 0.21 | 0.33 | 0.69 | 0.32 |
| 8 | 0.75 | 0.33 | 0.88 | 0.56 |
| 9 | 0.91 | 0.28 | 0.47 | 0.39 |
| 10 | 0.07 | -0.14 | 0.40 | -0.05 |
| 11 | 0.16 | 0.06 | 1.12 | 1.04 |
| 12 | -0.33 | 0.18 | 0.77 | 1.44 |
| 13 | 0.16 | 0.29 | -0.81 | 0.52 |
| 14 | -1.02 | -1.62 | -0.74 | 0.52 |
| 15 | -0.54 | -1.59 | -0.16 | 0.95 |
| 16 | 0.10 | 0.22 | 0.53 | 0.89 |
| 17 | 0.44 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.85 |
| 18 | 2.09 | 1.48 | 0.97 | 1.86 |
| 19 | 2.36 | 1.83 | 1.43 | 2.91 |
| 20 | 3.71 | 4.30 | 3.40 | 5.42 |
The international expression is South Korea: EWY +7.10%, sitting on a +55.51% 63-day run, as the KOSPI breached 9,000 for the first time on a 206% surge in early-June semiconductor exports. KOREATIMES Marvell's +8.34% coincides with its promotion into the S&P 500 at today's close alongside Flex, executed during a triple-witching expiry.
Strip the headline and the factor doing the cross-sectional work is Beta, the only factor with meaningful conditional importance (0.61) and monotonic across all four horizons (0.958 / 0.98 / 0.976 / 0.968). The top decile averaged +3.9% while the low-beta left tail sat at -0.89% — a textbook persistent cyclical regime, not a one-session pop, with the factor up +2.04% today (z=+1.6) on a z=+1.6 63-day run. VXX -3.55% shows the vol bid unwinding alongside, and the risk-on breadth reaches small caps (IWM +2.00%) and momentum (MTUM +3.50%).
| Bucket | Ret 1D Pct | Ret 5D Norm Pct | Ret 20D Norm Pct | Ret 63D Norm Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | -1.43 | -2.58 | -2.29 | -1.09 |
| 2 | -0.48 | -1.19 | -0.93 | -0.58 |
| 3 | -0.78 | -1.01 | -0.32 | -0.16 |
| 4 | -0.49 | -1.04 | -0.36 | -0.10 |
| 5 | -1.27 | -1.25 | -0.57 | -0.35 |
| 6 | -0.19 | -0.65 | -0.22 | 0.23 |
| 7 | -0.62 | -0.69 | -0.02 | 0.39 |
| 8 | 0.60 | -0.27 | 0.62 | 0.58 |
| 9 | 0.25 | 0.12 | 0.84 | 0.98 |
| 10 | 0.80 | 0.23 | 1.41 | 1.07 |
| 11 | 0.75 | 0.87 | 1.15 | 1.48 |
| 12 | 1.06 | 0.48 | 0.97 | 1.27 |
| 13 | 1.68 | 0.83 | 1.31 | 1.40 |
| 14 | 1.32 | 1.64 | 1.46 | 0.79 |
| 15 | 1.25 | 1.63 | 1.97 | 1.54 |
| 16 | 1.42 | 2.43 | 2.28 | 1.98 |
| 17 | 2.33 | 3.23 | 2.47 | 2.80 |
| 18 | 2.31 | 3.45 | 2.31 | 2.95 |
| 19 | 3.88 | 4.74 | 3.09 | 3.73 |
| 20 | 3.92 | 4.41 | 2.36 | 4.37 |
The macro backdrop is genuinely two-sided. Front-end yields firmed after Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish FOMCthe Federal Reserve debut — the 2-Year at 4.18%, up 1.6bps, against a long end that rallied, the 30-Year down 2.7bps to 4.90% CNBC — a bull-flattening that let TLT post +0.45% even as the dollar pressed higher. The DXY printed a year-high 100.79, up +0.70%. CNBC That stronger dollar is the headwind behind the day's losers — gold (GDX -2.01%), silver (SLV -1.85%), and the energy complex, where the US-Iran Hormuz reopening continues to drain the risk premium: XLE -1.49%, XOP -1.51%, extending energy's -10.80% 20-day slide. Bloomberg
| ETF | Theme | Today | 1d Ago | 5d Ago | 20d Ago | 63d Ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWY | south korea | +7.10% | -0.40% | +14.92% | +17.85% | +55.51% |
| SMH | semiconductors | +6.13% | +1.29% | +9.29% | +14.71% | +58.50% |
| MTUM | momentum | +3.50% | +0.68% | +7.66% | +12.19% | +33.31% |
| XLK | technology | +3.23% | -0.34% | +5.19% | +7.25% | +34.68% |
| IGV | software | -0.05% | -2.42% | -2.64% | -3.03% | +5.71% |
| FXI | china | -0.95% | -2.63% | -3.17% | -7.25% | -7.04% |
| XLE | energy | -1.49% | -1.25% | -6.15% | -10.80% | -6.44% |
| GDX | gold | -2.01% | -3.30% | +14.29% | +0.69% | -4.26% |
| VXX | volatility | -3.55% | +4.30% | -11.50% | -14.65% | -32.12% |
The proprietary read is in the divergences. Accenture cratered -17.67% — a $17B market-cap loss — after missing on Q3 revenue and trimming FY26 local-currency growth guidance to 3%–4%, citing a Middle East headwind and softer discretionary consulting demand; the read-through dragged Infosys ADRs and Wipro lower. Economic Times Software is the cleaner tell: IGV sat dead flat at -0.05% and remains -3.03% over 20 days against a tape where semis printed records — the rally is concentrated in silicon, not in the software complex.
The sharpest structural signal beyond semis is China, running at z=-2.4 today and z=-3.1 over 5 days — every threshold for a multi-week regime cleared. China-exposure names have underperformed persistently as the year-high dollar and fresh regulatory audits weigh: FXI -0.95% (-7.25% over 20 days), KWEB -0.34% (-10.25% over 20 days). Bloomberg A PM running cyclical or EM exposure should note this is a weeks-long drift, not a one-day move.
| Bucket | Ret 1D Pct | Ret 5D Norm Pct | Ret 20D Norm Pct | Ret 63D Norm Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2.59 | 2.09 | 1.10 | 1.35 |
| 2 | 1.75 | 1.03 | 1.17 | 1.10 |
| 3 | 1.24 | 1.56 | 1.83 | 1.49 |
| 4 | 0.91 | 0.76 | 1.40 | 1.35 |
| 5 | 0.54 | 0.28 | 0.90 | 0.91 |
| 6 | 1.05 | 0.45 | 0.80 | 0.88 |
| 7 | 0.63 | 0.75 | 1.29 | 1.01 |
| 8 | 0.64 | 0.92 | 1.69 | 0.54 |
| 9 | -0.69 | -1.30 | -0.35 | 0.55 |
| 10 | 0.07 | -0.60 | -0.85 | 0.41 |
| 11 | 0.56 | 0.91 | 0.97 | 0.86 |
| 12 | 0.07 | 0.61 | 0.83 | 0.77 |
| 13 | 0.93 | 0.50 | 0.91 | 0.88 |
| 14 | 0.82 | 0.58 | 0.64 | 1.01 |
| 15 | 0.22 | 0.23 | 0.27 | 0.61 |
| 16 | 0.78 | 0.55 | 0.65 | 1.44 |
| 17 | 0.58 | 1.14 | 0.95 | 1.42 |
| 18 | 1.05 | 1.57 | 1.03 | 1.71 |
| 19 | 1.06 | 1.47 | 1.20 | 2.62 |
| 20 | 1.51 | 1.83 | 1.06 | 2.34 |
Initial Claims from the BLS, released at 8:30 AM ET, fell 4,000 to 226,000 for the week ended June 13 — just above the 225,000 consensus — though continuing claims rose to a three-month high of 1.81 million. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, also at 8:30 AM ET, rebounded to 10.3 from -0.4, beating the 9.8 consensus, with new orders surging 29 points and the Prices Paid index at 53.2 reinforcing a higher-for-longer read. The New York Fed Staff Nowcast, released at 12:45 PM ET, held Q2 GDPbea.gov growth at 2.7%, supporting the resilient-economy narrative. The S&P quarterly rebalance took effect at the 4:00 PM ET close, with Marvell and Flex joining the S&P 500, driving heavy late-session volume during triple-witching expiry.
Data compiled by FactorPulse AI; edited and verified by Jeff Klein. For informational purposes only. Does not constitute financial advice, an investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Always consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
For more on factor construction methodology, see www.factorpulse.com/glossary.