The Semis factor rose +1.04% (z=+1.8) following upward revisions to hyperscale capital expenditure forecasts. Morgan Stanley and BofA Securities raised their 2026 combined capex estimates for major technology firms to $800 billionBloomberg. This revision extended the factor's momentum, which has recorded a 63-day z=+2.5.
| Factor | Return | Z-Score | 5d Z | 20d Z | 63d Z | Category | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semis | +1.04% | z=+1.76 | z=+1.21 | z=+1.23 | z=+2.50 | Theme | semiconductors exposure outperforms |
| Beta | +1.39% | z=+1.14 | -0.77 | 0.16 | z=+1.38 | Style | cyclical names outperform |
| Oil | +0.78% | z=+1.14 | 0.03 | 0.04 | -0.06 | Theme | oil exposure outperforms |
| Liquidity | +0.49% | z=+1.07 | -0.95 | 0.59 | 0.52 | Style | high liquidity outperforms |
| Momentum | +0.80% | z=+1.03 | 0.92 | 0.14 | z=+1.14 | Style | 1-year moves trend |
| Size | +0.11% | 0.38 | 0.79 | -0.10 | 0.69 | Style | large names outperform |
Marvell Technology (MRVL) rose +9.36%—though it declined 2.51% over the last hour—following its addition to the S&P 500 indexCNBC. Intel (INTC) gained +11.33%, and Micron (MU) advanced +9.83%, adding +1.30% in the final hour, following revised margin forecastsEconomic Times. The factor return indicates concentrated performance among its highest-exposure constituents.
| Bucket | Ret 1D Pct | Ret 5D Norm Pct | Ret 20D Norm Pct | Ret 63D Norm Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | -0.05 | -2.88 | -1.36 | -0.63 |
| 2 | 0.02 | -1.90 | -0.52 | 0.08 |
| 3 | -0.41 | -1.70 | -0.18 | 0.36 |
| 4 | 0.44 | -0.84 | -0.07 | -0.25 |
| 5 | -0.08 | -0.45 | 0.14 | -0.29 |
| 6 | -0.58 | -0.69 | 0.39 | 0.45 |
| 7 | -0.20 | -0.55 | -0.07 | -0.26 |
| 8 | -0.65 | 0.41 | 0.24 | 0.08 |
| 9 | -0.23 | -0.59 | 0.13 | -0.09 |
| 10 | -0.52 | 0.10 | -0.04 | -0.29 |
| 11 | 0.16 | -0.44 | 0.27 | 0.71 |
| 12 | 0.14 | 0.23 | 0.72 | 1.16 |
| 13 | -0.66 | -0.16 | -0.24 | 0.34 |
| 14 | -0.57 | 0.62 | -0.11 | 0.31 |
| 15 | -0.10 | -0.15 | -0.06 | 1.06 |
| 16 | 0.06 | -1.04 | -0.13 | 0.67 |
| 17 | 0.65 | -0.74 | 0.68 | 1.45 |
| 18 | 0.57 | -2.10 | -0.28 | 1.71 |
| 19 | 1.31 | -1.96 | 0.84 | 3.12 |
| 20 | 3.27 | -1.89 | 1.70 | 4.71 |
The iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) returned +6.00% on 1.66× its typical volume, erasing the prior session's declines. This reversal followed confirmation that Nvidia secured High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) supply agreements with Samsung and SK Hynix for its Blackwell and Rubin GPU architecturesBloombergMorningstar.
Goldman Sachs delayed its baseline Federal Reserve rate-cut projection to 2027, citing payroll growth and core PCEbea.gov inflationEconomic Times. In response, the 10-Year Treasury yield rose 3.0 bps to 4.566%CNBC, and the 30-Year yield increased 4.3 bps to 5.042%CNBC.
The yield curve shift lowered rate-sensitive exposures. Real Estate (IYR) declined -1.42% on 1.87× typical volume, and Utilities (XLU) fell -1.84%. This divergence indicates a rotation toward cyclical allocations and away from yield-proxy assets as rate cut expectations move to 2027.
| ETF | Theme | Today | 5d Ago | 20d Ago | 63d Ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWY | south korea | +6.00% | -14.89% | -0.88% | +38.24% |
| SMH | semiconductors | +4.85% | -4.88% | +5.48% | +49.70% |
| USO | oil | +1.79% | +3.04% | -1.44% | +22.29% |
| TLT | long-term bonds | -0.47% | -0.82% | -0.69% | -3.84% |
| IYR | real estate | -1.42% | +1.09% | -0.02% | +3.55% |
| XLU | utilities | -1.84% | -0.16% | -1.71% | -5.11% |
| Sector | Median Ret Pct |
|---|---|
| Utilities | -1.81 |
| Real Estate | -0.93 |
| Health Care | -0.55 |
| Financials | -0.50 |
| Materials | -0.48 |
| Communication Services | -0.44 |
| Consumer Staples | -0.21 |
| Industrials | -0.11 |
| Consumer Discretionary | -0.03 |
| Information Technology | 0.89 |
| Energy | 1.28 |
The Oil factor gained (z=+1.1) after military exchanges between Israel and Iran ended a two-month ceasefireBloombergNYT. Even with OPEC+ indicating plans to increase production, the United States Oil Fund (USO) returned +1.79%NYT. This energy sector performance drove the broader Beta factor to z=+1.1.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Survey of Consumer Expectations reported that median one-year inflation expectations declined to 3.5% from 3.6% in Maynewyorkfed.org. Perceptions of current financial situations reached their worst level since July 2022, with 43.7% of respondents reporting they are financially worse off than a year ago, as CNBC reported. These figures indicate deteriorating household financial conditions even as corporate capital expenditures expand.
Data compiled by FactorPulse AI; edited and verified by Jeff Klein. For informational purposes only. Does not constitute financial advice, an investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Always consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
For more on factor construction methodology, see www.factorpulse.com/glossary.